Fuel Cell Industry Policy Warm Wind Blows Frequently
Since 2019, A shares have started the rising mode. Fuel cell is one of the most active subjects. The industry index has increased by 28% in the year. Especially recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Catalogue of New Energy Vehicles, in which three fuel cell vehicles were selected. Fuel cell and hydrogen fuel cell in particular have become new features in the near future.
Compared with pure electric vehicles, fuel cells have the advantages of high endurance mileage and fast hydrogenation speed, and become the future development direction of leading automobile companies in various countries. Meijin Energy, the leading fuel cell company in China, has more than tripled its share price in the year.
Since 2019, the fuel cell index has risen by 28%, including the capital stock, Hope & Poor's stock and Snowman stock, which have doubled since the beginning of the year.
As early as ten years ago, domestic policies have been issued to support the development of fuel cells, but in the past 10 years, the focus of support is still in the field of lithium batteries. Until 2019, especially in March, the government issued intensive substantive policies to support the development of fuel cells.
On March 26, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Perfecting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in order to support the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry. The circular pointed out that the subsidy standards for new energy passenger cars, new energy passenger cars and new energy trucks should be reduced. After the transition period, the purchase subsidies for new energy vehicles are no longer granted. Instead, they are used to support the construction of charging (hydrogenation) infrastructure "short board" and supporting operation services.
According to the latest data of the China Automobile Association, the national fuel cell vehicle output in 2018 is 1619, while the target in 2030 is 2 million, which is only one-tenth of the long-term target. Therefore, in the next decade, fuel cell vehicles will have ten thousand times the market space.
According to the system arrangement of subsidy withdrawal after 2020, in order to make the new energy automobile industry transition smoothly, we should release the adjustment pressure by stages, that is, the average decline of subsidy standard in 2019 is 50% on the basis of 2018, and it will be in place before the end of 2020. The transition period is from 26 March 2019 to 25 June 2019.
In 2018, the Circular on Adjusting and Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles was issued, and the subsidy for fuel cell vehicles remained basically unchanged. The latest official policy in 2019 awaits official announcement next.
If fuel cell vehicles are to be commercialized on a large scale, it is very important to support hydrogenation stations. In this year's report on the work of the two sessions of the CPPCC and CPPCC, the government first proposed "promoting the construction of hydrogenation and other facilities".
Relevant data show that as of November 2018, there are 27 completed hydrogenation stations in China, and another 16 are under construction. Most of the 27 hydrogenation stations that have been built are only for demonstration vehicles and have not yet been fully open to the public. According to the Road Map of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology issued by China Automobile Engineering Association in October 2016, the number of hydrogenation stations in China will exceed 1,000 by 2030. Analysts pointed out that with the adjustment of industrial policies and the increase of subsidies for hydrogen-fueled vehicles, listed companies in relevant industrial chains are expected to benefit directly.
For the future performance of fuel cell concept stocks, recent institutions have published research reports to predict. Statistical data show that six concept stocks, including SAIC, Great Wall Automobile, Weichai Power, Sanhua Intelligence Control, Yutong Bus and Mike Home, have been given "buy" or "increase" rating by more than 10 institutions.
Guangfa Securities Research Report points out that China's fuel cell industry is in its infancy, and commercial vehicles are the pioneers of large-scale applications. The average cost of public transport is low, which reduces fuel cell cost and hydrogen cost. On the other hand, commercial vehicles drive on fixed routes and concentrate vehicles, so it is easier to build matching hydrogen stations.
Securities analysts said that in the short term, it is expected to support the production and marketing of fuel cell vehicles through policy subsidies in 2019. In the long run, if China wants to achieve commercialization of fuel cell vehicles, it also needs to solve the storage of key materials, transportation and research and development of key technologies. It is expected that in the future, industrial development will go out of differentiation, and enterprises that take the lead in technological progress will grow rapidly.
